The MARKet Update – 01/31/23

Good afternoon O$ members!

What a great month it’s been!  As you can see in the above ES Futures chart, we’ve basically been trading sideways since May.  Neither the bears nor the bulls have gotten a foothold to trend on one path.  This is fine, as I’ve been incorporating a lot more short-term plays to profit from by focusing on the daily supply and demand levels.

Tomorrow we have FOMC meeting and a Powell press conference at 2pm.  While no surprises should happen regarding the interest rate hike (25bps), the big question is how hawkish or dovish his press conference will be.  The internet is full of positive news that the FED will pause and reverse interest rates this year.  Many times as we lead into these Powell pressers, the market is overly optimistic, and then we crash the next day.  I won’t presume to predict at this moment what the market will do.  What and HOW he says his message is important to guide us moving forward.  It is hard to increasingly break through the next major supply/resistance level at 4200 unless he does give some indication of a pause/and or reversal.  Unemployment is still very low, wages are high, housing has not crashed, and inflation is still high; all things the FED has stated for the past year that they do not like and will sell assets and hold rates until these change.  So each time the market rockets up, without these variables happening, it creates a situation where it can quickly crash down again.

Our ADBE and SNAP long-term calls are approaching 100% gains today, and we’ll look to off-load these very soon.

More updates to come tomorrow!